When the Miami Dolphins fell to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9, reducing their record to 2-6, most supporters expected the team to focus on obtaining a high draft pick rather than competing for a postseason spot.

However, under coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have improved significantly in the second half of the season. Since that loss to the Bills, they’ve gone 6-2, taking advantage of weaker opponents to climb back into the playoff picture.

Miami now has a legitimate opportunity to make the playoffs, as they start Week 18 with an 8-8 record. They need to win and get some help, but their playoff odds rank second among the final three teams vying for a position.

So, how do the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s what needs to happen for them to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season under McDaniel.

Dolphins’ playoff prospects
Miami has a 19% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. This puts them behind the Denver Broncos (74% chance) but ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals (6%).

Dolphins’ playoff odds
According to Bet MGM Sportsbook, the Dolphins have +650 odds of making the playoffs. This gives them a 13.33% probability of qualifying, which is slightly lower than The Athletic’s estimates.

In instance, the Broncos have -700 odds of making the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 7 seed, while the Bengals are considered longshots at +1600.

How can the Dolphins reach the playoffs?
Miami has a clear path to the postseason in Week 18. Here’s what should happen:

The Dolphins must defeat the New York Jets.
The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami’s road is simple, but it will not be easy. First, the Dolphins must win the Jets without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is sidelined with a hip injury. Backup Tyler Huntley guided the Dolphins to a victory over the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets will present a more difficult challenge.

For example, the Broncos have -700 odds of entering the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 7 seed, whereas the Bengals are considered longshots at +1600.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs?
Miami has a clear path to the postseason in Week 18. This is what should happen:

The Dolphins must beat the New York Jets.
The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami’s road is straightforward, but it will not be easy. First, the Dolphins must beat the Jets without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is out with a hip injury. Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a win over the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets will be a tougher test.

For example, the Broncos have -700 odds of entering the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 7 seed, whereas the Bengals are considered longshots at +1600.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs?
Miami has a clear path to the postseason in Week 18. This is what should happen:

The Dolphins must beat the New York Jets.
The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami’s road is straightforward, but it will not be easy. First, the Dolphins must beat the Jets without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is out with a hip injury. Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a win over the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets will be a tougher test.

Dolphins’ probable playoff opponents
If the Dolphins achieve the outcomes necessary to make the playoffs, they will be the AFC’s No. 7 seed. The Buffalo Bills have already won the No. 2 seed in the conference with their Week 17 victory against the Jets, so if Miami makes the playoffs, they will face Buffalo.

The Bills have recently dominated the Dolphins, winning six consecutive games, including a 34-31 victory in the 2023 NFL playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa has never won an NFL game where the kickoff temperature was below 45 degrees, so the Dolphins might be the team the Bills would prefer to face among their three possible playoff opponents