Baseball playoffs are typically unpredictable — just go back to last season, when two wild-card clubs met in the World Series — but this season has been the most surprising yet.

For the first time since 2014, no club appears to be on track to win 100 games. The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks have been the two greatest teams since the All-Star break, rather than the current division leaders. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves might win it all — or miss the playoffs entirely, as they compete for the National League’s last wild-card slot. The Kansas City Royals have the opportunity to become the first team to go from losing 100 games to winning the World Series in successive seasons.

With two weeks left in the 2024 MLB regular season, let’s take stock of the 13 teams currently in best position to make the playoffs in a special edition of Real or Not. We’re breaking the teams into two groups: the favorites (based on proven success and 2024 record) and the spoilers. For the favorites, we’ll look at what issue might prevent them from winning the World Series; for the spoilers, we’ll look at why they can win it all. Then we’ll make a final verdict on ea

The greatest opportunity for the CH team in October.

Let’s begin with the best team in the majors.

Real or not, the Phillies’ offense will once again fail to connect over the month of October.

The Phillies will go into this postseason in a different position than the previous two: as NL East champions for the first time since 2011, and possibly as the overall favorite. After reaching the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the National League Championship Series in 2023, the Phillies are a better club. This is mostly due to a stronger pitching staff, both in the rotation with the rise of Cristopher Sanchez and in the bullpen with the acquisition of closer Carlos Estevez at the trade deadline.

On offense, it’s the same lineup of huge stars. In 2022, that group swept St.Cardinals in the wild-card series, overcame the Braves in the NL Division Series, and defeated the Padres in the NLCS before establishing a 2-1 series lead against the Astros. During those 14 postseason games, the Phillies hit 22 home runs and averaged 5.1 runs per game. In Game 4 of the World Series, the Astros pitched a combined no-hitter. The Phillies scored two runs in Game 5, one in Game 6. They hit.101 in their final three losses.

Last season, they defeated the Miami Marlins in the wild card game, stunned the Braves in the division series, and were leading the Diamondbacks 3-2 in the NLCS when they returned home for Game 6. They dropped the remaining two games of the series 5-1 and 4-2, respectively, as the offensive faltered again at the worst possible time. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have had outstanding postseasons, each hitting 11 home runs in 30 games, with Harper earning a 1.137 OPS and Schwarber a.987. Those two can be streaky, so the Phillies will require more from the bottom of the lineup. Alec Bohm has hit.231 with two home runs in those 30 playoff games, while Bryson Stott has hit.231 with two home runs during those 30 playoff games; Bryson Stott has hit.189 with a.552 OPS; Johan Rojas went 4-for-43 without an RBI last year; and Nick Castellanos was 1-for-24 in the NLCS and hitless for the final six games. They’ll need a few players from that bunch to stand up throughout the World Series

The verdict: It’s not real. I admire Zack Wheeler’s proven big-game performance as the ace. I love the bullpen. I like Harper’s capacity to deliver at huge moments. And I like the Phillies’ offense just enough to think this could be their year. The funny thing about those postseason-ending losses to Houston and Arizona is that they both occurred at home, despite the fact that the Phillies have had a significant home-field advantage all season. Hold it together at home in October in front of those devoted fans, and they will lift their first World Series championship since 2008.

True or False: Pitching ailments will hinder the Dodgers from winning the World Series.

Well … and I know Dodgers fans will confirm this with sad sighs … it’s looking a lot like last season, when the Dodgers won 100 games only to enter the postseason with so many injuries in the rotation that they had to start Clayton Kershaw, who had a sore shoulder, and Lance Lynn, who had led the majors in home runs allowed. No matter how many pitchers they sign or trade for, no matter how many promising starters they call up, the Dodgers just haven’t been able to get their rotation where they need it for October the past few postseasons.

Tyler Glasnow, who has a right elbow sprain, is “highly unlikely” to throw again this season, manager Dave Roberts revealed on Saturday. Gavin Stone, the team’s leader in starts and innings, has been out since early September with shoulder irritation. Kershaw is out with a toe injury. Roberts stated that he could not “see how it’s on the table” for Kershaw to return in the regular season, so how can you trust him in a playoff game after not throwing in a month?

Let’s see who’s left:

Jack Flaherty was acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline in a deal that now appears to be much more significant than it was at the time.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto had his first start since June last week and threw well, striking out eight in four innings. He then went four scoreless innings on Monday.

Walker Buehler has one win in 13 starts and an ERA of 5.95.

Bobby Miller: I’m not sure what happened to him after an amazing first season in 2023, but his ERA is 8.17.

Landon Knack has made 10 starts this season, including two in September where he allowed seven runs in eight innings.

It’s a mess. Roberts didn’t even rule out Shohei Ohtani returning to pitch in October, though given the practicalities of his DH duties, it would be difficult to deploy him out of the bullpen and warm up in the middle of a game.

Conclusion: Real. Even if Stone and Kershaw come healthy, the Dodgers will have to rely heavily on their bullpen. And, as Dodgers fans will tell you, making the right bullpen decisions hasn’t always been Roberts’ strong suit in the postseason — and this bullpen hasn’t been as dominant in the regular season as some other recent Dodgers bullpens (the 2024 pen is 11th in the majors in ERA since the All-Star break). All this puts pressure on an offense that didn’t show up last October, scoring two runs in each of the three losses to Arizona. A key guy to watch there: Mookie Betts, who has hit .079 with one RBI his past 10 postseason games.