The 2024 MLB draft begins on Sunday, so let’s see how the first round might play out this weekend using my Mock Draft 3.0.
This year’s excitement begins at the top, as the Cleveland Guardians must make a difficult decision with the No. 1 overall pick in a draft that includes a quality group of college players vying for the first pick. What will the Guardians do, and how will the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies follow up with the second and third picks?

This is my second-to-last mock draft of the 2024 draft cycle, with an updated 3.1 version arriving hours before Round 1 on Sunday. Remember that this is the order in which I believe the picks will come off the board, whereas my rankings are the order in which I would select the players.

I’m very confident Cleveland is still contemplating five players, and I believe I know who they all are. My current handicaps are Wetherholt at 45%, Travis Bizana at 40%, Jab Caglianone at 10%, Charlie Condon at 4%, and Chase Burns at 1%.

Clearly, this will be a plus. Bizana’s team may believe they have the player at the top of the Guardians board (which I also believe) and request $9.21 million, shattering Paul Scenes’ $9.2 million bonus record (under current hard-slotting draft regulations). Cleveland might then argue that he should take a discount because they have a viable, comparable alternative in Wetherholt, and that if Cleveland passes, Bizana will not move until the fourth pick; I agree with both of these points.

So, does the Bazzana camp take a chance by asking for a high number and risk sliding to the fourth pick, or will they lower their bid to a level below Skenes’ record? What will Wetherholt’s price point be? In addition, Cleveland may be interested in the other three players listed below.

calls from teams picking in the top 10 and agents of players expecting to go in the top 10, preparing for all eventualities.

My guess right now is that the Bazzana asking price sticks around Skenes’ figure; Wetherholt comes in $1 million (or even more) cheaper than Bazzana; Condon and Caglianone become secondary options as they expect to go in the next few picks, so they also have prices near Bazzana; and Burns is just harder to draft as the pitcher among four comparable position players.