The commencement of former President Donald Trump’s New York criminal hush money trial on April 15 raises the possibility of him facing over a decade in prison if convicted on all counts. However, legal experts interviewed by USA TODAY suggest that such an outcome is improbable. Instead, Trump would likely receive a sentence ranging from probation to four years behind bars, leaving him free to campaign as the presumptive or actual 2024 Republican nominee during the appeal process.
Trump faces 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records to conceal a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of four years. Although consecutive sentencing is feasible, experts deem it unlikely due to Trump’s lack of prior felony convictions and the nonviolent nature of the charges.
Nevertheless, Trump’s contentious interactions with Judge Juan Merchan, who will determine his sentence, could potentially affect the outcome. Merchan, frustrated by Trump’s pretrial conduct, expanded a gag order after Trump targeted the judge’s daughter on social media. Such behavior might aggravate any potential sentence.
Despite Trump’s plea of not guilty, the Manhattan District Attorney’s office contends that he falsified records to hide a campaign finance law violation and evade New York tax and election laws. The trial’s outcome could influence Trump’s sentencing, with some experts anticipating probation, given his lack of criminal history and former presidential status. However, others suggest that some period of incarceration is likely.
Trump’s Secret Service protection presents unique challenges, as any jail or prison sentence would require accommodations for his security. Nevertheless, legal experts deem the immediate likelihood of Trump’s imprisonment to be minimal, even if convicted. Bail pending appeal could keep him free, particularly if the appeal process extends beyond his potential sentence.
In summary, while Trump’s trial could have significant implications, the precise outcome remains uncertain, with various factors influencing his potential sentence, including his conduct during the trial and the judge’s discretion.
